CSS3 Support Trends (or: How much market do I lose if I don't use flash?)

Designing an animation-rich, interactive site.

We'll be around for a while (this isn't a one off promo or anything).

Are there graphs showing percentage support of CSS3 features by browser, and better still, the prediction of that support 1,2 or even 5 years into the future?

I would prefer to avoid flash, but I need to know how much audience I'm losing by going CSS3.

EDIT:

Thanks for the responses.

We are making a game, or rather a platform for games, but there will be a fair amount of textual content. After looking at the options, we're going with Flash as the primary interface, however content that should be searcha开发者_如何转开发ble will be made available in HTML as well.

The visual effects of Javascript, while appealing, are not as sophisticated as flash and they aren't widely support either.

BillThor sums it up quite nicely. It's the other way around. CSS3 can degrade very nicely. And apart from wondering who can and cannot see your content I think there's a other side of this: who will be able to find your content.

Even though search engines (read Google) have made progress in reading and indexing content inside Flash files it's far from perfect. And since there's no way in Flash (yet) to give structure or importance to elements it has no way to see what's important.

However, you mention animation. If you would use CSS3 animations you are losing a lot of audience since only Chrome and Safari currently support CSS3 animations. I suggest you animate your elements with javascript/jquery.

Back to your question. Here's an overview of CSS3 support per browser.

According to SiteCatalyst NetAverages, CSS3 Animations in October 2010 had a market reach of 11% on the desktop, up from 3% in January.

On smart phones, the market reach is higher, 70% in October 2010. Strangely, their figures show a declining trend for CSS3 Animation on smart phones, down from 83% in November 2009. I don't know why. Perhaps it could be that iPhone had a bigger market share back then, but I don't really know. I guess it shows that all such statistic and web measurements should probably be taken with a grain of salt, or at least a lot of stuff needs to be taken into consideration when studying them or using them for making decisions.

SiteCatalyst NetAverages is a service you need to sign up for (for a trial) so I can't post links to the statistics.