Microsoft is "de-emphasizing" Silverlight, should I pick another technology (Flash or HTML 5)?

I have been planning since Summer to build a new hobby site over Christmas break in which I will use Silverlight to make some super-awesome navigation menu. I was crushed to read that Microsoft is de-emphasizing Silverlight (to throw all their weight into HTML 5 I guess).

I have never used Silverlight, but I am trying to build my development skills around Microsoft 开发者_StackOverflow中文版products, and Silverlight seems like a really cool technology, thus my interest. If it is not going to have Microsoft's full support I am a bit apprehensive about committing to it.

With that said I have some questions:

1.) At this point in time can I get roughly the same results from HTML 5 as I could Silverlight when creating my navigation menu and with roughly the same amount of effort?

2.) If HTML 5 cannot fill the shoes of Silverlight at this time then what (Flash)?

3.) Is my apprehension about Silverlight even justified (would you use it now)?

I would point you to these two posts:

http://timheuer.com/blog/archive/2010/11/01/silverlight-is-dead-long-live-silverlight.aspx http://team.silverlight.net/announcement/pdc-and-silverlight/

In summary, Silverlight is not going away. Microsoft is recognizing the true cross-platform potential of HTML 5, but the spec for that isn't even complete yet, and we've got years before there is consistent support for it across the most popular browsers. Silverlight is the basis for development on Windows Phone 7, which is a bet-the-farm play for Microsoft.

Speaking for myself, I'm getting ready to develop an entire ERP in Silverlight.

This was simply unaltered tech journalism which may have focused a bit much on the face value, without further probing and questioning which was courtesy of Mary J Foley. Read the BobMu post.

Let me sum up the HTML5 vs Silverlight debate saying this...use Silverlight to build web apps, and HTML5 to build web sites.

Silverlight is moving forward just as it was pre-PDC. Ignore the hype, it is just that...hype.