is it still worth to support ios 3.1? [closed]

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I'm developing a simple game that relies heavily on MoviePlayer and supporting both 4.0 and 3.1 is a pain..

So I'm wondering - how many potential users would I lose if I'd abandon 3.1? Any stats or estimates available?

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If this is a new application you'll want to read this SO question on iPhone iOS4 Stats. The main answer quotes AppleInsider stating that 4.0 has a 49% market share and 3.1 has a 44% market share. Which means targeting 3.1 will get you over 95% of the iPhone market.

Another factor to consider is iPods currently don't support iOS4. My app, which targets 3.1, has 31% of it's users on 4.0, and 63% on 3.1.

If this is an existing application, your best bet is to wire in an analytics program like Flurry - which is super easy to do - and find out what percentage of your users are on 4.0 and 3.1.

Ultimately, I'd support 3.1 because in the end it doesn't hurt to support more versions. Cocoa with Love has a good article of Tips & Tricks for conditional iOS3, iOS3.2 and iOS4 code that you should checkout if you go that route.

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Some iOS adoption rate figure show that 20% of 3GS users haven't upgraded yet.